Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://repositori.uma.ac.id/handle/123456789/20265
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dc.contributor.advisorRahmadsyah-
dc.contributor.authorSitorus, Bunaya Arthavia-
dc.date.accessioned2023-07-11T03:04:25Z-
dc.date.available2023-07-11T03:04:25Z-
dc.date.issued2023-05-
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositori.uma.ac.id/handle/123456789/20265-
dc.description77 Halamanen_US
dc.description.abstractPrediksi adalah proses memperkirakan secara sistematis tentang peristiwa yang paling mungkin terjadi di masa depan berdasarkan informasi masa lalu dan saat ini yang dimiliki, untuk kesalahan (perbedaan antara apa yang terjadi dan apa yang diharapkan) agar diperkecil. SMA Dharmawangsa memiliki tujuan untuk menambah/meningkatkan sarana dan prasarana sekolah. Maka dari itu, harus dicari solusi untuk mengatasi masalah tersebut, salah satunya memprediksi jumlah siswa baru SMA Dharmawangsa agar pihak sekolah SMA Dharmawangsa dapat memprediksi penambahan serta pengurangan sarana dan prasarana sekolah. Kerena hal itu, peneliti melakukan pendekatan solusi dengan mengimplementasikan metode Single Exponential Smooth dan perancangan sistem yang berguna untuk memprediksi jumlah siswa baru pada SMA Dharmawangsa. Dari hasil penelitian maka jumlah siswa baru pada tahun 2024 adalah 299 siswa IPA dan 101 siswa IPS. Mean squared error (MSE) terkecil pada jumlah siswa baru IPA diperoleh dengan α=0.3 yaitu 1723.673 dan MSE terkecil pada jumlah siswa baru IPS dengan α=0.9 yaitu 1293.873. Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) terkecil pada jumlah siswa baru IPA diperoleh dengan α=0.6 yaitu 10.29% dengan keterangan metode yang digunakan baik. Sedangkan MAPE terkecil pada jumlah siswa baru IPS diperoleh dengan α=0.8 yaitu 26.64% dengan keterangan metode yang digunakan buruk . Penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa Metode Single Exponential Smooth dapat digunakan untuk memprediksi jumlah siswa baru di SMA Dharmawangsa sehingga dapat diketahui nilai prediksi pada tahun berikutnya. Serta peneliti berhasil membangun dan merancang sistem untuk memprediksi jumlah siswa baru di SMA Dharmawangsa. Prediction is the process of systematically estimating the most likely event to occur in the future based on past and current information, so that errors (the difference between what happened and what is expected) are minimized. Dharmawangsa High School has the goal of adding/improving school facilities and infrastructure. Therefore, a solution must be found to overcome this problem, one of which is predicting the number of new Dharmawangsa High School students so that the Dharmawangsa High School can predict the addition and reduction of school facilities and infrastructure. Because of this, researchers approached the solution by implementing the Single Exponential Smooth method and designing a system that is useful for predicting the number of new students at Dharmawangsa High School. From the research results, the number of new students in 2024 will be 299 science students and 101 social studies students. The smallest mean squared error (MSE) for the number of new science students was obtained with α=0.3, namely 1723,673 and the smallest MSE for the number of new social studies students with α=0.9, namely 1293,873. The smallest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for the number of new science students was obtained with α=0.6, namely 10.29% with a good description of the method used. Meanwhile, the smallest MAPE on the number of new IPS students was obtained with α=0.8, namely 26.64% with a description of the method used was bad. This study concludes that the Single Exponential Smooth Method can be used to predict the number of new students at Dharmawangsa High School so that the predicted value can be known in the following year. As well as researchers managed to build and design a system to predict the number of new students at Dharmawangsa High School.en_US
dc.language.isoiden_US
dc.publisherUniversitas Medan Areaen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesNPM;178160040-
dc.subjectsingle exponential smoothen_US
dc.subjectprediksien_US
dc.subjectMSEen_US
dc.subjectMAPEen_US
dc.subjectpredictionsen_US
dc.titlePrediksi Jumlah Siswa Baru Menggunakan Single Exponential Smooth di SMA Dharmawangsaen_US
dc.title.alternativePrediction of the Number of New Students Using Single Exponential Smooth at Dharmawangsa High Schoolen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
Appears in Collections:SP - Informatic Engineering

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